California House poll: Democrats hold slim leads in state’s closest races

Republican incumbents in four key U.S. House races are in a tight bid for reelection, according to a series of polls from USC, CSULB and Cal Poly Pomona. Experts will discuss the results in a webinar moderated by KQED’s Marisa Lagos on Sept. 25.

Contact: Paul McQuiston at paulmcq@usc.edu; Ileana Wachtel at iwachtel@usc.edu; Lance Ignon at ignon@usc.edu.

With two months to go before Election Day, four of California’s key races for the U.S. House of Representatives hang in the balance, including U.S. Rep. Katie Porter’s seat, according to new poll results by USC, California State University, Long Beach, and Cal Poly Pomona.

U.S. Rep. Scott Baugh leads Democratic challenger Dave Min by 3.7 points in the race — within the poll’s margin of error of 4.3 percentage points — to fill Porter’s seat for the 47th Congressional District spanning Orange County.

But the poll also shows that a handful of California Republican incumbents in the mostly blue state are in a fight to retain their congressional seats, including:

• Rep. Ken Calvert, who is in a dead heat with Democrat Will Rollins for the 41st Congressional District that includes Riverside County.
• Rep. Michelle Steel trails challenger Democrat Derek Tran by 1.5 percentage points for the 45th Congressional District seat.
• Rep. Mike Garcia is nearly neck-and-neck with Democrat George Whitesides for Congressional District 27 spanning the Antelope Valley in Los Angeles County.

“A strong turnout for Democrats at the top of the ticket could knock out several of the Republican incumbents,” says Christian Grose, professor of political science and international relations and public policy at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences and the USC Price School of Public Policy. “California Democratic House candidates have the wind at their back, but the real question is whether Democratic voter excitement will knock up against a red wall of California Republican incumbents. As goes California’s congressional districts, so goes control of the U.S. Congress.”

Those are just some of the results of the latest California Elections and Policy Polls sponsored by the Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State Long Beach in collaboration with USC.

The series of eight polls of more than 3,700 total likely voters was conducted from Sept. 14-21 across eight California districts in San Francisco, Los Angeles, the Central Valley, the San Joaquin Valley, Orange County and Riverside County.

RSVP today for “A House Up for Grabs,” to hear from the experts on this poll’s findings. Wednesday, Sept. 25 at noon Pacific Time. RSVP here!

CA-41: Calvert and Rollins tied in tight Riverside County race

A repeat of the 2022 contest is playing out in the 41st Congressional District, where Rollins lost by fewer than 5 percentage points to Calvert, a Republican who has held the seat for more than 30 years. The results indicate they are in a virtual tie for the seat to represent the district that spans Palm Springs and several L.A. County commuter towns.

“The underlying partisanship of this district is just slightly more Republican than most of the other California swing districts that we polled, which helps Republican Ken Calvert,” Grose said. “However, the polling data shows Calvert is underperforming in this district relative to other Republican statewide candidates like Senate candidate Steve Garvey.”

CA-47: Could a DUI affect the vote?

In the 47th District, which covers coastal Orange County, Baugh leads Min in the race to fill the seat of U.S. Rep. Katie Porter (D).

One of the most competitive in the nation, both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee identified it as a top target for the 2024 election cycle. Polling finds Baugh leading by 3 points (46% to 43%).

Min has been the focus of criticism for a 2023 conviction for drunken driving. When asked to describe Min in the survey, respondents in the 47th District reported terms such as “DUI,” “drunk” and “drunk driving.” Conversely, likely voters used terms like “conservative” to describe Baugh.

“California’s 47th District is incredibly competitive and one of the few bright spots in the poll for Republican House candidates,” says Grose. “While within the margin of error, Republican Scott Baugh’s lead of over 3 points shows his criticisms of Min’s DUI are having an impact. However, when you dig into the crosstabs, Democratic voters and Min voters are much more enthusiastic about the election than Republican voters and Baugh voters.”

CA-45: GOP incumbent Steel faces uphill climb to re-election

Tran and Steel also are in a virtual tie. The results also show that among voters in the district, U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff leads Republican candidate Steve Garvey by 6.8 percentage points in the race for the U.S. Senate, and Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 8.3 percentage points.

“Steel trails Tran by only 1.5 percentage points, demonstrating Republican endurance in a Democratic-leaning district,” Grose said. “Yet Tran’s lead within the margin of error suggests a Democratic wave could push out Steel despite her stronger performance than Republicans at the top of the ticket.”

Other highlights from the survey:

• CA-12 and CA-16: In the Bay Area, Democrats Lateefah Simon and Sam Liccardo lead for open House seats. Simon leads Jennifer Tran 28% to 15% in the election to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-12). However, more than half of the surveyed voters responded that they were undecided. Meanwhile, former San Jose Mayor Liccardo has a lead of 31% to 20% over Democrat Evan Low, a state legislator for the 26th District in the South Bay. “The poll shows Democrat Liccardo is drawing a broader base of support from both Democratic and Republican voters, and Democrat Low is drawing primarily Democratic support,” Grose said.
• CA-27: George Whitesides holds a slim advantage because of undecided voters. The poll found that Whitesides led Garcia 44% to 43% among likely voters. Twenty-nine percent of undecided voters favored Whitesides when pushed to choose a candidate, which is more than the undecideds who favored Garcia.
• CA-13 and CA-22: Turnout will be key for Central Valley, San Joaquin Valley Democrats. U.S. Reps. David Valadao (R-22) and John Duarte (R-13) are under threat. In the Central Valley, Democrat Rudy Salas led Valadao by 4.2 percentage points — within the margin of error — but 25% of likely voters did not vote in 2022, and they favor the challenger. Meanwhile, Duarte tails Democrat Adam Gray by 2 percentage points in the San Joaquin Valley — and new voters narrowly favor Gray.

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More about the California Elections and Policy Polls: The series of eight polls of likely voters was conducted from Sept. 14 to Sept. 21, and each poll has its own sample size and margin of error (see below). The Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State Long Beach sponsored the poll in collaboration with USC researchers. In addition to Grose, the poll was conducted by Cal State Long Beach Associate Professor Matthew Mendez Garcia, Cal State Long Beach Assistant Professor Matt Lesenyie, Cal Poly Pomona Assistant Professor Jarred Cuellar, Jose Alcocer, a doctoral student at USC Dornsife and 2017 Master of Public Policy graduate of USC Price, and Raquel Centeno, a doctoral student at USC Dornsife.

Voters were randomly sampled from the California voter file, ensuring representativeness of the state’s voters. Voters were screened for those who said they were “extremely likely” or “somewhat likely” to vote. To ensure representativeness of the electorate, survey weights that are standard in the field were used to adjust the full sample, including these oversamples, to be representative of the California electorate. The survey was fielded in English, Spanish, Korean, Mandarin/Chinese and Vietnamese.

Poll / Sample Size (N) / Margin of Error (MoE)
CA12/East Bay / N=510 LVs / MoE +/-4.3%
CA13/San Joaquin Valley / N=311 LVs / MoE +/-5.6%
CA16/San Jose/South Bay / N=544 LVs / MoE +/-4.2%
CA22/Central Valley / N=263 LVs / MoE +/-6.1%
CA27/LA County / N=522 LVs / MoE +/-4.3%
CA41/Riverside County / N=539 LVs / MoE +/-4.2%
CA45/Orange County / N=498 LVs / MoE +/-4.4%
CA47/Orange County / N=525 LVs / MoE +/-4.3%