State poll: Katie Porter early frontrunner for California governor

New poll of California likely voters also shows Kamala Harris outperforming Joe Biden against Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential race.

Contact: Ileana Wachtel at iwachtel@usc.edu; Lance Ignon at ignon@usc.edu; Paul McQuiston at paulmcq@usc.edu.

U.S. Rep. Katie Porter is the early frontrunner in a wide-open race to become California’s next governor — if she decides to run — according to a new poll from USC, Cal Poly Pomona and California State University, Long Beach. But with two years to go until the gubernatorial election, polling experts say it’s still anyone’s race to win.

Porter, a Democrat who came up short in her primary bid for U.S. Senate, received 14% support when matched against a dozen people who have either announced they are running or are rumored to be running for governor in 2026. The closest hypothetical competitor was Republican State Sen. Brian Dahle, with 5.3% of the vote. Attorney General Rob Bonta (3.5%) was the second best-performing Democrat.

“The 2026 governor’s race is wide open and anyone could win,” said Christian Grose, professor of political science and international relations and public policy at the USC Price School of Public Policy and the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences. “Driven by high statewide name recognition after her unsuccessful Senate primary run, Katie Porter leads the pack.”

Those are just some of the results of the latest California Elections and Policy Poll sponsored by the Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State Long Beach in collaboration with USC. The statewide survey asked 1,685 likely voters in California, including 311 from Los Angeles County, about the 2024 U.S. presidential and Senate elections, as well as ballot propositions, public policies and local races that voters will decide this November.

Results from a separate California Elections and Policy Poll on U.S. House races in California can be found here.

Harris outperforms Biden in California

The poll suggests Vice President Kamala Harris’ entry into the presidential race could help Democrats across California. Harris (56.5%) is easily beating former President Donald Trump (33.7%), and support increases to 57.7% for Harris and 35.5% for Trump when undecided voters are pushed to choose. President Joe Biden, who dropped out in July after his presidential debate performance amplified concerns about his age, received just 53% in a statewide poll conducted in January.

“Kamala Harris is polling better than Joe Biden was even before his disastrous debate performance,” Grose said. “Harris’ strength relative to Biden in the state could boost down-ballot Democrats in House and state legislative elections.”

Other election findings from the poll include:

• Democrat Adam Schiff (52.7%) maintains a large lead over Republican Steve Garvey (33.8%) in the race for the U.S. Senate.
• The proposal to create a new L.A. County executive — it would be an elected position — and increase the number of Board of Supervisor districts to nine from five is favored by 35.6% of likely voters in the county and opposed by 17.4%.
• In the election for L.A. District Attorney, Nathan Hochman (44.4%) has a significant lead over incumbent George Gascón (20.3%). About one-third of voters remain undecided in this race.

“Nathan Hochman has taken a decisive lead over George Gascón outside the margin of error of the poll,” Grose said. “Gascón is stuck in the 20s in the poll, which is pretty similar to the primary vote he received in March. The poll also shows that voters are concerned about crime, and those with crime concerns are more likely to support Hochman. Gascón’s remaining hope is the large percentage of undecided voters.”

Voters support proposals on AI, crime

The poll also surveyed Californians about ballot propositions and public policies before the state Legislature.

Among those is a recently passed California bill (SB1047) that would require developers of advanced artificial intelligence models to adopt safety measures. Although the bill is controversial among state lawmakers, the proposal is supported by a majority (56.9%) of California voters, compared to just 14.7% who oppose the measure.

“The AI safety bill is quite popular among California voters, with a majority supporting the legislation,” Grose said. “Among the state’s elected officials, the bill has divided Democrats due to fears over unintended consequences that could drive off innovation and jobs being balanced by the need for AI safety regulations.”

California voters also strongly favor Proposition 36, which would allow felony charges for possessing certain drugs and for thefts under $950. The poll found that 57.9% of likely voters favor Proposition 36 to increase criminal penalties for petty theft and drug use, while only 19.0% oppose Proposition 36.

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More about the California Elections and Policy Polls: The statewide California Elections and Policy Poll of 1,685 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 12-25 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. The poll of 311 likely voters within L.A. County has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points for the questions specific to L.A. County.

In addition to Grose, the poll was conducted by Cal State Long Beach Associate Professor Matthew Mendez Garcia; Cal State Long Beach Assistant Professor Matt Lesenyie; Cal Poly Pomona Assistant Professor Jarred Cuellar; Jose Alcocer, a doctoral student at USC Dornsife and 2017 Master of Public Policy graduate of USC Price; and Raquel Centeno, a doctoral student at USC Dornsife. The methodology for identifying likely voters, sampling and weighting to ensure the poll is representative of the statewide electorate is available in the full poll report.

Image credits:

Top image: Composite: Letty Avila, USC Dornsife; Image Source: iStock.

Infographics: Letty Avila, USC Dornsife.